This is intended for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation. You should consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
If I’m being honest, the market has been rather disappointing lately. It’s the nature of investing: there are up days, and sometimes there are down days or even weeks. The important thing to keep in mind is that, in my opinion, we are still in a bull market. Simply put, this means the longer-term trend of the market is still up.
The cost of the AI race
The first issue is that investors are nervous about the sheer amount of money AI companies are spending on infrastructure. An increasing chunk of this is being funded by debt. That in itself isn’t a bad thing, as long as capital expenditures (CapEx) drive future growth but investors dislike the near-term drain on cash flow.
For instance, Meta Platforms (META) announced during their Q3 2025 earnings call, that they were raising their 2025 CapEx guidance to $70-$72 billion (up from a prior estimate of $66-$72 billion) to accelerate AI infrastructure development. Shares fell over 11% in the days following the October 29th earnings report, as the market expressed apprehension over the burgeoning AI investment costs. This reaction highlights the tension: investors love the AI story but scrutinize the astronomical price tag required to build the future.
Persistent rate riddle
Then there is interest rates. I know we talk about them a lot here, but they really are the fundamental building block of what drives market valuations. Higher rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow and make future earnings less valuable today.
There is this constant back-and-forth going on related to when (and if) the Federal Reserve will cut rates again next month. While inflation has cooled, the Fed wants to ensure it’s firmly on target. This ambiguity creates a persistent headwind, particularly for high-growth stocks whose valuations rely heavily on those future discounted cash flows.
The sentiment headwinds
Finally, there is sentiment, often a forgotten key theme by investors. Sentiment is the collective feeling towards markets, themes, or a particular stock. Many headlines have come out recently that have propelled a more sour sentiment.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon sent a chill through the market when he warned that equity valuations tied to the AI boom look stretched, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12–24 months we see a 10%-20% drawdown in equity markets.” This kind of message can quickly change positioning and lead to sell offs.
- In the short-term, negative headlines also drive positioning. Prominent investor, Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) recently disclosed a large bearish put options position against Palantir Technologies (PLTR), linked to a notional value of over $900 million. This highly visible bearish bet put immediate selling pressure on one of the year’s hottest AI stocks and cast doubt on other AI stocks.
The bull market is still intact
I remain in the camp that the bull market isn’t over and there is still room to run in stocks. My view is anchored on two key forecasts:
- Labor market moderation: I anticipate that the Fed will cut rates next quarter (or at least provide a definitive dovish pivot). Although the official September employment numbers (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) were better than expected, the Federal Reserve is flying blind as it relates to October and other figures. Crucially, private-sector figures from firms such as Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) have shown consistent weakness, with their recent National Employment Report showing that private employers shed $32,000 jobs in September. This suggests the anticipated moderation in the labor market is taking hold and creates room for a rate cut.
- The “Wealth Effect” matters more than ever: Although Fed officials may not say it, they have become more sensitive to stock market movement. 62% of U.S. consumer households own stocks (either directly or through funds), compared to about 52% during the post-Great Recession low point. This means consumer spending may become more sensitive to changes in the stock market (the “wealth effect”), giving the Fed an additional incentive to avoid a severe equity downturn.
Strategic portfolio positioning
I still believe in the AI infrastructure theme, but you have to be picky. Choose the companies that are showing real, monetizable AI-related outcomes.
- AI winners: Alphabet (Google), for instance, has moved into a dominant position in the AI race, particularly with its Gemini models and integration across its ecosystem. Their stock is up approximately 50% year-to-date (as of November 2025), reflecting strong growth in their cloud and advertising segments driven by AI.
- AI enablers: I still like those stocks related to energy (electricity) and cooling—the physical utilities that power the data centers. That said, you have to be prepared for the volatility. Shifting headlines can make these stocks prices move widely.
- Defensive growth: Aside from those, Walmart (WMT) had stellar earnings and is moving more heavily into the technology space. If you haven’t heard, they will be transferring their listing to the Nasdaq Stock exchange. This is a clear signal of their stable, blue-chip status and technology ambition. This move sets them up for potential future inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is what the popular QQQ ETF tracks. For now, investors should view WMT as a core, defensive growth holding, but one with increasing exposure to the powerful digital retail trends.
- Cash to cushion: I have added a bit more cash to my clients’ portfolios. This cushions the blow when we have tough weeks like what we’ve just seen and provides dry powder to capitalize on dips in some of the high-conviction names I’ve mentioned.
Take a breath, keep your position
We’re in a classic consolidation phase. After a strong run-up, markets are simply catching their breath and struggling for direction. The long-term themes we’ve been playing, AI infrastructure and an eventual Fed pivot, haven’t changed. They’re still very much alive.
If your portfolio has taken a hit over the last two weeks, that’s okay. Volatility is the price of admission for long-term equity returns. This choppy period is less of a threat and more of an opportunity. It’s a window to accumulate high-conviction names at a discount while the crowd is panicking or confused.
As we head into the shortened Thanksgiving week, keep in mind that trading volume typically falls around 20 percent the day before the holiday and stays quiet afterward. When fewer people are trading, price swings look bigger than they really are. That’s noise, not a trend, so don’t react to it. Close the investing app, enjoy your people, and let the market breathe while you do the same.
Ken Johnson, CFA | Wall Street taught me the numbers. My community taught me the culture. InvestorBloc is where the two come together so you can build wealth in a way that feels authentic and attainable.
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